Key takeaways:
- It is a long way to go before ChatGPT overtakes Google. ChatGPT’s financial model, which relies on paid subscriptions and APIs, limits its mass adoption compared to Google’s free search engine. Trust and accuracy issues also hinder its potential to replace Google as the dominant search tool.
- ChatGPT must move beyond its current revenue model or mimic Google’s model to compete with Google. Suggestions include a Spotify-like system that compensates content creators proportionally based on usage.
- ChatGPT can address the imbalance inherent in traditional search models and potentially disrupt Google’s dominance by enhancing topical authority and incentivising niche content creators.
Will Google become the next Blockbuster?
They laughed us out of their office… they thought we were a very small niche business,’ recalls Barry McCarthy, former Netflix CFO, about Blockbuster’s fateful miscalculation in 2000. That mistake turned Netflix into a juggernaut, leaving Blockbuster as a cautionary tale.
Today, AI chatbots like ChatGPT are hyped as the next Netflix, challenging Google’s dominance in search. Yet Google, a ten-ton gorilla, isn’t standing still—it’s innovating.
Meanwhile, with falling visitor numbers and mounting questions about its business model, ChatGPT replacing Google and turning into the next Blockbuster seems as likely as Elon Musk turning his back on space travel to launch a line of fax machines.
Still, it’s not impossible. So, how can ChatGPT overtake Google in what feels like a modern-day David vs. Goliath battle? (Though in this case, David is a $157 billion startup—more Sir Richard Branson taking on Elon Musk than a humble underdog with a slingshot).
Overtaking Google is challenging for ChatGPT with its current model
One of the key challenges facing AI models like ChatGPT to overtake Google is their current financial models. ChatGPT relies on its paid subscription service and API to generate revenue. Yet, that’s not enough as it continues to operate at a loss.
Yet, this is nothing new. Many tech start-ups have run at a loss for years before reaching profitability. For example, Meta spent five years annoying people with its poke feature until reaching profitability in 2009.
Meanwhile, Amazon took nine years to reach a full year of profitability in 2003. That’s many books before Jeff Bezos could top up his piggy bank.
Yet, ChatGPT’s issue in overtaking Google is which profit model they adopt. The subscription model has scope to continue growing.
Access to all ChatGPT’s’ features is appealing, particularly for professionals like marketers who generate large volumes of copy or lawyers who review extensive documentation.
Yet, given the availability of free alternatives, paying for chatbot services will remain unnecessary for the masses.
Moreover, these platforms are unlikely to surpass Google’s dominance even with paid versions. Google has brand authority and remains the starting point for billions of daily queries.
Moreover, with concerns over trust and accuracy, AI chatbots like ChatGPT have yet to demonstrate they can fully replace traditional search engines.
The Perplexity’s playbook: ads and the Google model
Perplexity AI’s decision to integrate ads marked a bold step into Google’s territory, inching closer to the search giant’s revenue playbook.
But can ads, without any other changes, help AI tools like ChatGPT dethrone Google? Unlikely. Competing against Google at its own game is a high-stakes gamble, and history suggests that the master rarely loses.
Netflix didn’t play Blockbuster at their game. They made their own rules.
Ads may help ChatGPT monetise, but they’re no magic bullet for overtaking Google. While advertising is a proven revenue stream, it comes with compromises: intrusive ads frustrate users and clash with the streamlined, ad-free promise that made AI chatbots popular.
For ChatGPT to truly overtake Google, it must find a business model that goes beyond mimicking the incumbent—it must innovate. Ads, however, might prove to be part of the answer.
The content conundrum: to overtake Google, ChatGPT must think ahead.
It’s easy to dismiss ChatGPT as merely a chatbot. Yet, in 1999, Amazon was just an online bookseller. In 2006, Facebook was just a source of gossip – you could spend hours amused by the long-lost weirdo from school and his relationship status update.
However, things got “complicated.”
The same is true for ChatGPT. ChatGPT’s introduction of search into its system marked another step toward positioning itself as a credible Google alternative. Users can now get summarised answers with links.
Yet, this leads us to the most significant issue facing ChatGPT in overtaking Google. While links are offered, how many people will visit the source of the answer? The better the summary, the less likely anyone is to click on a link.
This is great for the end user. No more scrolling through SEO-driven War and Peace drivel. Finally, a clear answer!
However, while end users may rejoice in this utopian world, things are not straightforward. How will content creators remain incentivised to produce new material if users rely on AI-generated summaries instead of visiting their websites?
It’s like asking Donald Trump to be President without any press coverage or attention. Good luck with that! Kim Kardashian is more likely to become a nun.
A bleak future if ChatGPT overthrows Google without innovation
The truth is that a future where ChatGPT overtakes Google without rewarding content creators paints a gloomy picture—an internet left desolate, a digital ghost town. It is a relic of creativity frozen in time, with Elon Musk as its lone occupant shouting into the void.
Yes, Elon loves to shout. There’s a reason he’s become the most-followed person on X since his takeover. And it’s nothing to do with him tweaking the algorithms to amplify his voice. He wouldn’t do that.
However, this isn’t a new issue. Major publications have long criticised Google for summarising articles and cutting into their traffic. In response, Google removed entire publications from its search results to prove the worth of its search engine.
However, AI chatbots like ChatGPT exacerbate this issue by providing even more comprehensive answers.
Therefore, this future is unlikely because it’s unsustainable. AI chatbots rely on data to continually improve. If creators are disincentivised, the internet will no longer exist, and knowledge will be lost. It will be regression rather than progression.
Moreover, it’s a future where Elon isn’t heard. Hmm…I guess every cloud does have a silver lining!
Furthermore, with interest in using AI rising at an unprecedented speed, it is clear people do not want this dystopian future. So, how can ChatGPT overtake Google without breaking the internet and hurting Elons feelings?
The Spotify model for content creators
One potential solution is to adopt a Spotify-like model to compensate content creators. This could incentivise users to continue creating content with reduced website traffic and overcome plagiarism challenges like Perplexity.
Spotify revolutionised the music industry by introducing a new streaming model. This includes revenue generated through:
- Freemium access, which offers a basic, ad-supported service
- Premium service for a subscription fee
Consequently, Spotify collects revenue from subscriptions and ads, and artists receive a share based on how often their songs are played.
Chat ChatGPT could overtake Google by adopting a similar model. Like Spotify, it could aggregate user payments into a central pool and allocate payouts proportionally depending on how often a creator’s content is referenced. This could sustain the flow of new information, which is critical for AI development.
For example, if a song accounts for 0.5% of all Spotify streams each month, the artist receives 0.5% of that month’s royalty pool.
However, the system isn’t perfect. Spotify critics argue that smaller artists are not receiving fair rewards. Therefore, to overtake Google, ChatGPT must address this issue to ensure creators continue to be incentivised.
The Spotify model has several challenges.
Blindly following the Spotify model has two core issues: underappreciating niche expert creators and the payment model.
Firstly, ChatGPT’s responses often include links and sources resembling Google’s top 10 search results.
Therefore, like Spotify payouts favouring Taylor Swift over Tyler Quick from Croydon, a chatbot’s royalty system might disproportionately benefit major websites already dominating search rankings.
For instance, Wikipedia, often appearing in chatbot responses, might see inflated earnings, leaving smaller creators under-compensated.
Therefore, ChatGPT must consider how they will include niche creators and insights to overtake Google.
Secondly, there is the issue of payment. Neither ChatGPT nor Google owns the internet. Nobody does. Therefore, they do not have a closed system like Spotify, where you sign up, upload your music and get paid.
Instead, ChatGPT, like Google, crawls the internet, accessing data and information. Consequently, an innovative mechanism for payment will be required without registration.
Moreover, Spotify’s system works because streams are measurable, and payments are aggregated monthly. For ChatGPT, determining how much of a response comes from any single source is more complex.
Should payments be equal for every citation or weighted based on prominence in the response?
Furthermore, making micropayments is simple in theory but tricky in practice. Handling millions of tiny transactions daily could overwhelm payment systems, and transaction fees might nibble away at earnings.
To overtake Google ChatGPT must incentivise niche expertise
In the next decade, the importance of niche content is predicted to grow, especially within traditional search engine results. With tools like ChatGPT offering generic advice, the likes of Google Search will become a haven for people seeking expertise on specific topics.
The move has already started with the rise in importance of Entity SEO, which aims to obtain Topical Authority, a crucial ranking factor on Google.
Therefore, to overtake Google, ChatGPT must consider tweaking its algorithms to give people the best insight rather than the most agreed-upon advice.
For instance, a typical query about growing Instagram followers often yields advice like “post consistently” or “create great content.” While true, this advice lacks depth.
To overtake Google, ChatGPT must evolve to uncover and surface more obscure but relevant insights to address this imbalance. In return, it can provide a high-level overview alongside deeper insights, such as strategies for accelerating Instagram’s algorithms by identifying a niche.
Furthermore, uncovering niche insights helps address the imbalances inherent within the Spotify model. Rather than the biggest websites getting paid, niche experts are rewarded for their knowledge.
This has several further benefits, such as improving AI and human knowledge.
But how would AI determine the quality of such advice? By leveraging its knowledge of algorithms and user intent, AI could predict the value of niche-specific recommendations while filtering out nonsensical suggestions.
This ability to blend standard advice with tailored insights could help ChatGPT overtake Google.
Can ChatGPT overtake Google by delivering payments powered by Blockchain?
However, while the Spotify model provides a strong conceptual foundation for ChatGPT to overtake Google, implementing it in the digital knowledge economy presents unique challenges.
A key question remains: how would a payment system for content creators function practically?
One possibility is blockchain.
Therefore, in this vision, every time a piece of content is used, a record is created on the blockchain—a permanent, immutable log. Payments happen automatically through smart contracts without delays, disputes, or middlemen.
For example, if your blog post gets cited 1,000 times a month, you’d earn 1,000 tokens, which could be converted into cash or used within the platform.
This transparency could build trust, encouraging creators to contribute more. However, it raises complex questions about incentivisation, scalability, and sustainability.
Overcoming blockchain challenges for ChatGPT
Blockchain promises transparency and automation but comes with more baggage than Mariah Carey on a two-week shopping trip.
Incentivising users to maintain the system remains a persistent issue. Moreover, blockchain has received heavy criticism for its negative environmental impact. Given AI’s carbon footprint problems, it’s not a straightforward solution.
However, if ChatGPT wants to overtake Google, it needs a way to incentivise participants, known as “nodes,” to keep the blockchain running smoothly whilst selecting the greenest solution.
So, what are the possible solutions? Let’s take a look:
- Proof-of-Work (PoW): Nodes solve complex puzzles to earn cryptocurrency and maintain the system. It’s ultra-secure but guzzles energy faster than Michael Phelps at an all-you-can-eat buffet. With its massive carbon footprint, PoW feels more like a relic than the future of AI chatbots.
- Proof-of-Stake (PoS): PoS is the greener alternative. Instead of mining, nodes are chosen based on their stake in the network. Ethereum’s move to PoS reportedly slashed its energy consumption by over 99.9%. However, there is an issue. PoS can concentrate power in the hands of the few and wealthy, potentially creating a blockchain aristocracy—not exactly democratic in the information age.
- Proof-of-Reputation (PoR): This is the latest blockchain innovation and perhaps the best solution. It rewards nodes for their trustworthiness and accuracy. Imagine ChatGPT powered by a blockchain where only the most reliable nodes maintain it while content creators are paid fairly. Sounds perfect, right? Unfortunately, PoR is still in its experimental stage, and scaling it for a platform as vast as ChatGPT is uncharted territory.
However, given ChatGPT’s resources and ambition, it’s uniquely positioned to pioneer PoR and push blockchain innovation forward. By solving these challenges, ChatGPT wouldn’t overtake Google but redefine the search industry entirely.
Blockchain nodes won’t work for free.
To overtake Google, ChatGPT needs an effective and sustainable blockchain infrastructure. For that to happen, blockchain participants—nodes—need to be incentivised. In short, nodes won’t work for free.
One approach is rewarding nodes directly with cryptocurrency for their efforts. This digital currency would be based on the ChatGPT blockchain and hold real value, compensating participants for maintaining the network. Consequently, we could see the birth of ChatGPT Coin.
But cryptocurrency alone might not be enough. ChatGPT could also explore revenue sharing, where a portion of platform earnings from subscriptions or ads is distributed among nodes based on their contributions. This adds a layer of financial incentives tied directly to the platform’s success.
To keep the system thriving, dual incentives such as granting nodes access to tools like Open AI’s Sora could also be introduced, enhancing their ability to perform at a high level.
Can a Spotify-driven, blockchain-backed financial model work and help ChatGPT overtake Google?
The theory is brilliant: ChatGPT adopts a blockchain-backed, Spotify-inspired model, paying creators and nodes fairly. In this utopia, everyone’s thriving—well, almost everyone.
However, the hard part is making it profitable for both OpenAI and content creators. Let’s break it down.
Today, ChatGPT isn’t even close to Google and does not have an ad model. Therefore, we used Google’s 2023 financials for our thought experiment and assumed ChatGPT could match Google’s scale. That means:
That leaves about $180.88 billion to cover overheads, reinvestment, content creators, and node operators. If we allocate 10% of that revenue ($18.09 billion) to creators, how much does each mention earn?
With 3.1 trillion Google searches annually, content creators would see about $0.0058 per mention. For someone with 10k mentions a month, that’s $58—not exactly life-changing money.
While this might feel underwhelming, it’s a start. Since Google doesn’t have a subscription model for its search engine, we ignored this part of our Spotify-like proposal.
Therefore, if OpenAI can expand revenue streams or boost ad revenue, the model could evolve into something more rewarding for creators and scalable for the ecosystem.
Moreover, there are likely to be considerably fewer ChatGPT searches than Google searches as it provides answers more quickly and precisely. Therefore, the potential revenue share could increase.
However, further innovation is needed in addition to the model.
ChatGPT must continue thinking outside the box
ChatGPT must continue to innovate to overtake Google. A Spotify-like model is a great start, but it will not see ChatGPT overtake Google on its own.
One opportunity lies in leveraging the cryptocurrency generated by our proposed blockchain. ChatGPT could extend content creators’ profits by compensating them in cryptocurrency and revenue sharing.
If the cryptocurrency gains value, creators could see substantial returns, making participation more enticing.
Another option is fine-tuning payments based on impact. References that offer high-quality insights or drive ad clicks could earn higher payouts, incentivising creators to focus on valuable content.
For instance, a cited article that leads to a user clicking an ad could trigger a premium payout, tying creator rewards directly to revenue generation.
Potential losers in ChatGPT’s quest to overtake Google
If ChatGPT overtakes Google, its ripple effects could shake the foundation of how websites make money. Today, website revenue falls into four main buckets:
- E-commerce: Selling products, courses, or digital goods.
- Subscriptions: Think Netflix or SaaS platforms.
- Services: Consultancy, freelancing, or specialist offerings.
- Ad Revenue: Ads, promotions, and affiliate marketing.
Of these, ad-reliant businesses are the most vulnerable. Media outlets like The Guardian face an uphill battle as AI reduces click-through rates and reshapes how users engage with content. Without site visits, these companies’ lucrative ad space becomes less valuable.
The stakes are different for companies selling products or services. AI might reduce click-through traffic, but people must still visit the website to make a purchase. Moreover, if ChatGPT is trained to highlight brands accurately—with logos, colours, and messaging intact—it could be a powerful branding tool.
If companies combine this with a multi-channel approach, they could thrive in a ChatGPT-dominated search industry. Today, you will get little traffic if you are not in the top 10 Google search results. More websites could be rewarded in a future where niche insights are surfaced.
It could push brand names to the front of people’s consciousness even when they don’t visit their sites. However, the risk lies in relinquishing control over how the AI represents its brand and losing potential traffic to competitors highlighted by the system.
Yet visibility alone isn’t enough for ad-dependent websites. ChatGPT must innovate a weighted financial model to overtake Google, which rewards mentions at scale.
Websites generating high traffic—and thus high ad revenue potential—might earn compensation reflecting their historical income streams.
Ultimately, for ChatGPT to thrive without alienating the ecosystem it relies on, it must blend innovation with collaboration. Brands, publishers, and creators must see AI search engines as allies, not disruptors, ensuring a future where profit isn’t a zero-sum game.
Is it likely ChatGPT can overtake Google?
AI chatbots like ChatGPT have the potential to reshape how we search, learn, and interact with information online.
However, for ChatGPT to overtake Google, its long-term success hinges on balancing user experience, content creator incentives, and sustainable revenue streams.
By integrating blockchain-backed payments, adopting a Spotify-like model for compensating content creators, and refining its ability to surface niche insights, ChatGPT could redefine the search experience.
However, this isn’t just about toppling Google; it’s about creating an ecosystem where creators, users, and the platform thrive together.
For now, Google’s scale, brand authority, and deeply ingrained habits make it a formidable opponent. Yet, as history shows, even giants can fall. Blockbuster and MySpace once appeared untouchable.
Yet, they didn’t fail because they were weak. They failed because they didn’t adapt fast enough.
To overtake Google, ChatGPT must rethink traditional search paradigms. More importantly, it must rethink how AI chatbots work today by focusing on content creators.
The race between ChatGPT and Google isn’t just a battle of algorithms; it’s a fight for the future of the internet. In this battle, the winner will be the one who balances innovation with inclusivity, progress with profitability, and disruption with collaboration.
0 Comments